{"id":2334,"date":"2017-09-13T21:12:00","date_gmt":"2017-09-13T21:12:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/live-infoblox-blog.pantheonsite.io\/?p=2334"},"modified":"2020-05-06T10:27:57","modified_gmt":"2020-05-06T17:27:57","slug":"where-are-you-on-the-ipv6-adoption-curve","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infoblox.com\/blog\/ipv6-coe\/where-are-you-on-the-ipv6-adoption-curve\/","title":{"rendered":"Where Are You On The IPv6 Adoption Curve?"},"content":{"rendered":"

It is human nature to be curious about where you stand in relation to others.\u00a0 For example, organizations can be competitive and thus interested in making comparisons between their organization and others in their shared market segment.\u00a0 People also want to be individuals and stand out in a crowd (even at the risk of appearing vain).\u00a0 But no one wants to be the last one in their school to catch on to a fashion trend (especially just in time for that fad to go out of style the next month).\u00a0 Even so, there are still those among us who are the last hold-outs re-iterating the virtues of\u00a0Myspace<\/a>\u00a0over Facebook.<\/p>\n

As new technology is developed, it takes time before the population acquires the new products utilizing that technology.\u00a0 For example, we can draw analogies between adoption of high-definition television and the adoption of IPv6.\u00a0 For high-definition TVs to become ubiquitous, the industry needed to have high-definition content for consumers to watch; the satellite, RF, and cable networks needed to be upgraded; and the cost of flat-panel high-def TVs needed to drop to an affordable level.\u00a0 Similarly, IPv6 needed to be implemented by the large content providers, service providers needed to build IPv6 backbones, and IPv6 needed to be integrated into all mobile devices and computer operating systems.\u00a0 In both situations, there could have easily been a \u201clog jam\u201d whereby none of the three (content, transport, or end-system) would upgrade.\u00a0 With high-definition TVs, the better picture was the draw for consumers.\u00a0 With IPv6, the increased address space and elimination of NAT are compelling reasons to deploy the protocol.<\/p>\n

We have all seen\u00a0those charts that compare the adoption<\/a>\u00a0of the telephone as well as households with televisions to the pace we now adopt technologies such as smartphones or tablets.\u00a0 There are many statistical models that describe the\u00a0adoption lifecycle of technology<\/a>.\u00a0However, these modern innovations are demonstrating that technology adoption can occur faster than ever before.\u00a0 The familiar\u00a0normal distribution<\/a>\u00a0\u201cbell curve\u201d doesn\u2019t keep up with some modern Internet innovations that benefit from the \u201cnetwork effect<\/a>\u201d.\u00a0 Many of these technology trends do follow the\u00a0Everett Rogers<\/a>\u00a0bell curve where the chart is divided into five categories.\u00a0 Below is a picture of Roger\u2019s \u201cdiffusion of innovations<\/a>.\u201d\u00a0 The graph shows that there is a small population of innovators who are more aggressive about technology adoption and whose organizations possess more resources and are less risk-averse.\u00a0 Nest, there are those early adopters who are educated about the benefits of adoption and are open to new ideas and willing to experiment and \u201ctake a chance.\u201d\u00a0 Then there are those in the majority who follow the trends and are more conservative.\u00a0 Finally, there are technology laggards who are skeptics and only eventually adopt technology after it has become a de-facto standard.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"IPv6<\/p>\n

Source: Wikipedia,\u00a0https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Diffusion_of_innovations<\/a><\/p>\n

The yellow line of this graph represents the \u201ccumulative distribution\u201d amount representing the total percentage of the population that has consumed the product, service, or technology.\u00a0 There are also\u00a0derivatives of this graph<\/a>\u00a0that show \u201cThe Chasm\u201d between the technology enthusiasts and visionaries and the early adopters and pragmatists.\u00a0 (This concept is covered fully in the book titled \u201cCrossing the Chasm<\/a>\u201d by Geoffrey Moore.)<\/p>\n

Our teenage son wears this\u00a0ThinkGeek<\/a>\u00a0t-shirt that has a bell-shaped curve with some lines (possibly standard deviation marks).\u00a0 When I look at it I can\u2019t quite tell what it means.\u00a0 On one hand, it could be a slight \u2013 intending to make me feel like I am at the low end of the intelligence curve or my class grade is woefully below average.\u00a0 On the other hand, it could represent that I should feel good about myself because I am one of the early adopters of an evolutionary technology.\u00a0 The latter explanation better suits my optimistic outlook!<\/p>\n

\"IPv6<\/p>\n

Picture Source:\u00a0https:\/\/it.pinterest.com\/pin\/178455203956549313<\/a><\/p>\n

When it comes to IPv6, there are many graphs that we can look at to observe adoption of this Internet Protocol.\u00a0 One of the most popular IPv6 adoption graphs can be found on the\u00a0Google IPv6 Statistics Page<\/a>.\u00a0 Another graph is one produced by my friend and co-author Eric Vyncke that shows \u201cProjection of IPv6 %-age of IPv6-Enabled Web Browsers (courtesy Google) in United States of America<\/a>.\u201d\u00a0 This graph also extrapolates from the available data a graph predicting that IPv6 adoption will continue on its upward trajectory.<\/p>\n

\"IPv6<\/p>\n

Source:\u00a0https:\/\/www.vyncke.org\/ipv6status\/project.php<\/a><\/p>\n

There have also been graphs created that attempt to predict when IPv6 adoption will surpass IPv4.\u00a0 One of these can be found in a\u00a0presentation by Martin Gysi from Swisscom<\/a>\u00a0and one was shown in my article titled \u201cIPv6 is Accelerating as IPv4 is Nearing its Peak<\/a>.\u201d\u00a0 Because IPv6 adoption is doubling every year, there is evidence to suggest that we will soon be reaching the 50% cross-over mark, where IPv6 is dominant and IPv4 becomes the legacy address protocol.\u00a0 There is now documented evidence that this is occurring in some specific places on the Internet.\u00a0 Recently, LinkedIn passed a significant milestone where their IPv6 traffic crossed this critical 50% milestone.\u00a0\u00a0Franck Martin of LinkedIn<\/a>\u00a0wrote an article titled \u201cLinkedIn Passes IPv6 Milestone<\/a>\u201d, that showed a graph of the percentage of page views over IPv6 for LinkedIn over the last two months.<\/p>\n

\"IPv6<\/p>\n

Source:\u00a0https:\/\/engineering.linkedin.com\/blog\/2017\/07\/linkedin-passes-ipv6-milestone<\/a><\/p>\n

With all these graphs in mind, a new graph can be drawn that combines these three concepts.\u00a0 The following diagram superimposes the sine-wave adoption curve behind the Google IPv6 statistics graph with a graph that shows the phases of \u201cdiffusion\u201d of IPv6 technology into the market.\u00a0 From this graph, we can see that the early innovators deployed IPv6 between 2000 and 2013.\u00a0 These include universities and research organizations, ISPs, mobile operators, and the large content providers.\u00a0 It appears that we have also passed through the phase where early adopters are now using IPv6.\u00a0 This population could represent large companies, or some government departments and agencies.\u00a0 We are now starting to get into the early majority phase of IPv6 adoption.\u00a0 However, from the sine curve, this phase may have a short duration because IPv6 adoption is doubling every year.\u00a0 It will be many years before the laggards get IPv6, or they may unintentionally start to use IPv6 because it is automatically built into their devices and the services they use.<\/p>\n

\"IPv6<\/p>\n

IPv6 evangelists may not be the best\u00a0futurologists<\/a>\u00a0in terms of accurately predicting when IPv6 will achieve mass adoption.\u00a0 For instance, back in 2000, I was convinced that IPv6 would be ubiquitously deployed by 2010.\u00a0 Today, we have some data collected about actual IPv6 adoption and we are more realistic about its inevitable and eventual adoption.<\/p>\n

Your conclusions about this IPv6 adoption graph are likely to be similar to the way that I look at my son\u2019s t-shirt.\u00a0 If your organization has already deployed IPv6 then you should feel proud about your aggressive pursuit of technological superiority.\u00a0 If you are just now planning your IPv6 deployment, then you are firmly in the middle-section of the bell curve graph.\u00a0 However, if your organization has not yet even seriously contemplated IPv6 planning and the eventual deployment, then you are going to end up in the late majority category.\u00a0 If you are still an IPv6 skeptic and sailing down the river of\u00a0de-Nile<\/a>\u00a0(unlikely you would be reading this article in that case) you are highly likely to be in the laggard category.<\/p>\n

Hopefully, you see the glass as half-full and realize that there is still time to help your organization get a jump on IPv6 deployment, join the early majority, and thus gain a competitive advantage by achieving dual-protocol Internet connectivity.\u00a0 Alternatively, you may elect to skip the dual-protocol phase and aggressively strive to deploy\u00a0IPv6-only environments in your enterprise<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It is human nature to be curious about where you stand in relation to others.\u00a0 For example, organizations can be competitive and thus interested in making comparisons between their organization and others in their shared market segment.\u00a0 People also want to be individuals and stand out in a crowd (even at the risk of appearing […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":321,"featured_media":2106,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[38,31,39],"class_list":{"0":"post-2334","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ipv6-coe","8":"tag-ipv6","9":"tag-networking","10":"tag-protocols","11":"entry"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhere Are You On The IPv6 Adoption Curve?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"It is human nature to be curious about where you stand in relation to others.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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Hogg","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/blogs.infoblox.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/avatar_user_321_1574118215-96x96.jpg","url":"https:\/\/blogs.infoblox.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/avatar_user_321_1574118215-96x96.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/blogs.infoblox.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/avatar_user_321_1574118215-96x96.jpg","caption":"Scott Hogg"},"description":"Scott Hogg has 30 years of network and security experience and is president of Hogg Networking with. Scott Hogg specializes in teaching Internet Protocol version 6 (IPv6) and providing implementation guidance. Scott is CCIE #5133 (Emeritus) and CISSP #4610. Scott is Chair Emeritus of the Rocky Mountain IPv6 Task Force (RMv6TF), a member of the IPv6 Center of Excellence (COE), and co-author of the Cisco Press book on IPv6 Security.","sameAs":["https:\/\/hexabuild.io"],"url":"https:\/\/www.infoblox.com\/blog\/author\/scott-hogg\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infoblox.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2334","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infoblox.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infoblox.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infoblox.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/321"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infoblox.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2334"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.infoblox.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2334\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3673,"href":"https:\/\/www.infoblox.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2334\/revisions\/3673"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infoblox.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2106"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infoblox.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2334"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infoblox.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2334"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infoblox.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2334"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}