{"id":1609,"date":"2018-10-02T17:09:44","date_gmt":"2018-10-02T17:09:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/live-infoblox-blog.pantheonsite.io\/?p=1609"},"modified":"2022-10-19T16:26:01","modified_gmt":"2022-10-19T23:26:01","slug":"when-will-we-stop-using-ipv4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infoblox.com\/blog\/ipv6-coe\/when-will-we-stop-using-ipv4\/","title":{"rendered":"When Will We Stop Using IPv4?"},"content":{"rendered":"

When someone first starts learning about IPv6 they quickly come to understand that an IPv4-only node cannot communicate with an IPv6-only node and that\u00a0dual-stack<\/a>\u00a0is the dominant transition method. \u00a0Now,\u00a0six years after World IPv6 Launch<\/a>, there is a growing amount of IPv6 traffic on the Internet and in the next few years we might observe\u00a0IPv6 Internet traffic surpassing IPv4 traffic volumes<\/a>\u00a0for the first time. \u00a0One of the\u00a0IPv6 novice questions<\/a>\u00a0we are being asked more frequently is \u201cwhen will we stop using IPv4?\u201d \u00a0Let\u2019s dive into this question and see if we can\u2019t answer it.<\/p>\n

Protocols Come and Go<\/strong><\/h2>\n

There was an era twenty years ago when it was perfectly normal to operate a multiprotocol network running IPX\/SPX, AppleTalk, SNA and IPv4. \u00a0It has been decades since protocols like DECnet, ARCNET, CLNP, Vines, X.25, Frame Relay, DLSW, and so on, were used on enterprise networks.<\/p>\n

Remember how satisfying it was to decommission some legacy piece of technology? \u00a0Recall the joy you experienced when you took out that FDDI ring from your network, or when you turned off that last Windows XP computer? \u00a0Ahh, for that refreshing feeling of cleanliness and accomplishment removing some old IT detritus and basking in the radiance of the remaining homogenous modern network!<\/p>\n

IPv4: Here Today, Here to Stay<\/strong><\/h2>\n

In the 1990s, TCP\/IP took over as the dominant routed network protocol and quickly became ubiquitous on private networks. \u00a0As the Internet exploded, IPv4 traffic volumes rose exponentially. When you look at a\u00a0graph of the number of entries in the IPv4 BGP default-free-zone routing tables<\/a>, you can barely spot the dot-com bubble bursting in 2000 or the 2009 global economic recession. \u00a0IPv4 has been growing at a significant rate and will continue to increase as documented in the\u00a0Cisco Visual Networking Index<\/a>\u00a0(VNI). \u00a0Now, with the rise of Internet video usage, global proliferation of mobile devices, and the Internet of Things, more and more IPv4 packets continue to flood the Internet.<\/p>\n

IPv6 Enters \u00a0the Picture<\/strong><\/h2>\n

In the early 1990s, first generation Internet engineers determined that the use of classful IPv4 addressing and the expected growth of the Internet were going to cause scalability problems that would potentially inhibit its further expansion. \u00a0The IETF initiated an effort to develop a next generation Internet protocol that could scale to meet future demands of global networks. By 1998, IPv6 was born as\u00a0RFC 2460<\/a>, which has now become a full standard with\u00a0RFC 8200<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Since then, IPv6 has experienced an uphill battle as the prospect of migrating from IPv4 to IPv6 became more challenging each year that IPv4 continued to flourish. \u00a0IPv6 needed to be integrated into the end-node operating systems, integrated into the network devices, deployed by broadband, deployed by the mobile service providers, and adopted by content providers. \u00a0It became apparent that running IPv6 in addition to IPv4 was the only viable approach to smoothly migrate from one protocol to the other (given that IPv6 is not backwards-compatible with IPv4).<\/p>\n

However, the downside to the dual-stack migration strategy is that you end up running two protocols in parallel for possibly a long time. \u00a0Theoretically, the duration of the dual-stack phase of IPv6 migration begins when the first device receives an IPv6 address until the last device disables IPv4. \u00a0Depending on the size of the network, this interval could be as brief as a few minutes or as long as decades! The other challenge with running a dual-protocol network is that you have to maintain both protocols, thus\u00a0increasing operational costs<\/a>.<\/p>\n

For several years now, Internet IPv6 traffic volumes have been doubling. \u00a0Depending on where you take your measurements, IPv6 can sum to a sizable amount of the network bandwidth. \u00a0There is evidence that IPv6\u2019s growth is having a slowing effect on IPv4 traffic volumes. There have also been studies showing that\u00a0IPv6 is accelerating as IPv4 is nearing its peak<\/a>. \u00a0The crossover point where the IPv6 traffic percentage surpasses the IPv4 traffic percentage may\u00a0only be a couple years away<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The IPv4 Long Tail<\/strong><\/h2>\n

John Curran, President and CEO of ARIN, gave a\u00a0presentation at the 2017 North American IPv6 Summit<\/a>\u00a0where he discussed\u00a0the long-tail<\/a>\u00a0of IPv4 (see slide 15). \u00a0It is clear that we will be using both IPv6 and IPv4 in parallel for many years to come. \u00a0There is no specific predetermined date when the Internet or private networks will stop using IPv4 entirely. \u00a0Just like there was no \u201cflag-day\u201d for an Internet-wide migration to IPv6, there will be no \u201cflag day\u201d for IPv4 decommissioning. \u00a0However, there have been flag days of-a-sort when the\u00a0RIRs have exhausted their supply of IPv4 addresses<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Imagine a consumer who has just purchased an Internet-based cat feeder that only uses IPv4 to communicate to a cloud service and the owner\u2019s mobile app. \u00a0This new IoT device should last for many years and cats have been known to live 15 or more years. Therefore, if you are the ISP for this subscriber you will need to support IPv4 for a considerable length of time and you will need to provide a unique public IPv4 address to this subscriber\u2019s home router that performs NAT. \u00a0After all, you don\u2019t want someone\u2019s poor cat to starve, do you?<\/p>\n

Also, there are still many enterprise organizations that have not yet deployed IPv6, and probably haven\u2019t even contemplated IPv6 to any significant degree. \u00a0Many enterprises have not provided IPv6 training to their IT teams and those teams have not obtained IPv6 education on their own. These enterprises have not taken their first steps toward creating a plan for IPv6 deployment, much less requested global IPv6 address resources or created an addressing plan. \u00a0These technology laggards on the \u201cdiffusion of innovations<\/a>\u201d and the\u00a0IPv6 adoption<\/a>\u00a0curves will lengthen this dual-protocol phase for all. \u00a0Those IPv6 slowpokes will learn to love NATs as described in the\u00a0Internet Protocol Journal article<\/a>\u00a0by Geoff Huston, Chief Scientist at APNIC, titled \u201cIn Defense of NATs<\/a>\u201d (see page 25).<\/p>\n

Getting Ready for IPv6-Only<\/strong><\/h2>\n

There are some organizations that are aggressive about their use of technology to achieve a competitive advantage and that, as a result, are starting to deploy IPv6-only networks. \u00a0Many of these organizations presented their IPv6-only strategies at the\u00a02017 North American IPv6 Summit<\/a>\u00a0event. \u00a0However, all these organizations are providing some method for their IPv6-only hosts to reach legacy IPv4-only systems, such as\u00a0DNS64\/NAT64<\/a>.<\/p>\n

T-Mobile has been working on\u00a0IPv6-only mobile devices<\/a>\u00a0for their subscribers for several years now. \u00a0Stephan Lagerholm, Senior Manager, Systems Design and Strategy, Technology at T-Mobile, gave a presentation at NANOG 73 on \u201cGoing IPv6 Only<\/a>\u201d.<\/p>\n

LinkedIn\u2019s\u00a0IPv6 Engineering team<\/a>\u00a0has had a\u00a0preference for IPv6<\/a>\u00a0for a number of years and\u00a0last summer they published how their IPv6 traffic volume passed the 50% mark<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Facebook has been\u00a0striving to operate IPv6-only data centers<\/a>. \u00a0In May of 2018, they noted that their IPv6 traffic volume surpassed their IPv4 traffic volume for the first time.<\/p>\n

Microsoft has been operating\u00a0IPv6-only environments in their buildings<\/a>. \u00a0Veronika McKillop, network architect at Microsoft\u00a0recently wrote about their experiences operating these IPv6-only environments<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Cisco has been experimenting with an\u00a0IPv6-only environment<\/a>\u00a0in their San Jose California Campus Building 23.<\/p>\n

On a broader scale, there are a\u00a0few countries that have passed the 50% IPv6 milestone<\/a>. \u00a0Belgium is one of the first countries to be listed on the\u00a0Google IPv6 Statistics page<\/a>\u00a0as having over 50% IPv6 traffic. \u00a0Countries like Germany, India, United States, Uruguay, Sweden, Greece, Switzerland, and Finland (among others) may be close to reaching the 50% mark in the next year or two.<\/p>\n

Internet service providers and mobile carriers would rather operate only a single protocol on their massive backbone networks. \u00a0However, even though they would prefer to operate an IPv6-only network, their subscribers have many IPv4-only devices that will need to be supported for many years. \u00a0Service providers are calling this method of connecting legacy IPv4 nodes over an IPv6-only core \u201cIPv4-as-a-Service\u201d (v4aaS). This 3-part Infoblox IPv6 COE blog series provides background on this v4aaS topic (Part 1<\/a>,\u00a0Part 2<\/a>,\u00a0Part 3<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Predicting a Date<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Generally speaking, asking an IPv6 evangelist to predict a date of when something will occur is not advisable and the answer is likely highly suspect. \u00a0Even with that disclaimer now in place, we have evidence of places on the Internet where\u00a0IPv6 has already surpassed IPv4 traffic volumes<\/a>. \u00a0We also have evidence that there are private networks that are running IPv6-only (e.g.\u00a0T-Mobile<\/a>,\u00a0Cisco<\/a>,\u00a0Microsoft<\/a>,\u00a0LinkedIn<\/a>,\u00a0Facebook<\/a>). \u00a0We see IPv6 traffic volumes continuing to increase as more devices get upgraded and service providers continue their deployments. \u00a0We expect more IPv6 traffic once enterprises start their IPv6 deployments.<\/p>\n

Typical IT refresh cycles for organizations can vary between 3 and 10 years. \u00a0If you assume that we expect to cross-over the 50% threshold of IPv6 traffic surpassing IPv4 traffic in the 2020 timeframe, then you can add another 10 years to that date for IPv4 traffic volumes to decline. \u00a0Predicting that IPv4 will \u201cgo the way of\u00a0the dodo<\/a>\u201d sometime after 2030 would be a reasonable estimate.<\/p>\n

Scott Hogg\u00a0(@ScottHogg<\/a>) is CTO of\u00a0HexaBuild.io<\/a>, an IPv6 consulting and training company.\u00a0 Scott is Chair Emeritus of the Rocky Mountain IPv6 Task Force (RMv6TF<\/a>) and authored the Cisco Press book on\u00a0IPv6 Security<\/a>.\u00a0 Follow HexaBuild on\u00a0Twitter<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0LinkedIn<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

When someone first starts learning about IPv6 they quickly come to understand that an IPv4-only node cannot communicate with an IPv6-only node and that\u00a0dual-stack\u00a0is the dominant transition method. \u00a0Now,\u00a0six years after World IPv6 Launch, there is a growing amount of IPv6 traffic on the Internet and in the next few years we might observe\u00a0IPv6 Internet […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":321,"featured_media":1133,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[56,38,31,39],"class_list":{"0":"post-1609","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ipv6-coe","8":"tag-ipv4","9":"tag-ipv6","10":"tag-networking","11":"tag-protocols","12":"entry"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhen Will We Stop Using IPv4?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Many individuals and companies have adopted IPv6 addresses. 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